Аналитический обзор падения стоимости нефти
Почему я решил разместить именно эту статью?
Во первых она наиболее полно и верно раскрывает перспективы
Во вторых я нашел множество подтверждений написанному ниже
Апокалипсис tomorrow
Европу, Японию и США поразил финансовый кризис, который привел к глубокому дефициту ликвидности у банковской системы, который национальные правительства купируют впрыском в экономики сотен миллиардов долларов и евро, причем на первое место стремительно выходит выкуп государством пакетов акций банков. Новый акционер не позволит спасенным им банкам наносить вред национальной экономике играя выделенными на спасение средствами в пользу роста цен на нефть.
Конкретный пример: в конце позапрошлой недели крупнейший банк Швейцарии UBS объявил о том, что уходит с рынков всех сырьевых товаров кроме золота, а спустя неделю после этого заявления получил помощь правительства Швейцарии в размере 60 млрд. долларов.
Вывод № 1: нефть потеряла спекулятивную поддержку, вытолкнувшую ее столь высоко.
Финансовый кризис стремительно перерастает в кризис реального сектора – в сентябре 2008 года в США случилось рекордное по своей глубине за последние 34 года падение производства, количество новостроек упало до рекордного за 17 лет уровня, количество разрешений на новое строительство показало минимальное значение уже за 27 лет. Экономики ведущих стран ЕС и Японии уже во втором квартале 2008 года показали спад. И вряд ли ситуация выправится в третьем. Тем более в Германии, где местная модель капитализма характеризуется контролем банковского сектора над реальным и пошатнувшийся банковский сектор будет изымать у принадлежащих ему предприятий всю возможную ликвидность, что как минимум заставит их остановить инвестиционные проекты, а часть предприятий и вовсе оставит без оборотных средств.
Вывод № 2: реальный сектор ведущих экономик мира снижает физический спрос на нефть.
Уходит в прошлое республиканская администрация Буша, вместе с Саудовской Аравией (а действующему в одном направлении дуэту крупнейшего покупателя и крупнейшего поставщика ничто не в силах противостоять) все свои усилия положившего на создание ситуации, толкающей цены на нефть вверх, что должно было обеспечить сверхприбыли главным спонсорам республиканской партии – американским нефтяным компаниям, а в долгосрочной перспективе – заставить США серьезно снизить потребление нефти, снизив или прекратив зависимость страны от поставок с Ближнего Востока.
Падение цен на нефть – серьезный резерв для экономики, импортирующей 10 млн. баррелей в день. При цене в 140 долларов за баррель США каждый день платили бы арабским шейхам и венесуэльскому недругу 1,4 млрд. долларов, при цене 20 долларов – только 0,2 млрд., что в пересчете на год дает экономию в 430 млрд. долларов, которые американцы смогут потратить на выплату кредитов, рост потребления или сбережений. Хорошая экономия выходит – весом в 3% ВВП США. Весьма нужная в кризисные времена. И новая, демократическая администрация, уже заявила что одной из основных своих задач видит снижение цен на нефть. Что – как это ни странно звучит – совпадает с пожеланиями Саудовской Аравии. Но об этом ниже.
А пока вывод № 3: политическкое руководство крупнейшего покупателя нефти больше не заинтересовано в росте цен на нее, напротив его интерес зафиксирован и озвучен именно в падении цен на нефть.
Теперь к Саудовской Аравии. Согласно данным «Бритиш Петролеум» совокупные разведанные запасы Саудовской Аравии на конец 2007 года составляли 264 млрд. баррелей нефти, что с учетом добычи 3,8 млрд. баррелей в том же 2007 году дает горизонт исчерпания запасов в 70 лет. Кроме того Саудовская Аравия является монархией, у которой горизонт планирования традиционно выше, чем у демократий с присущей им сменностью контролирующих власть групп. Обе вышеназванные причины предполагают для руководства Саудовской Аравии игру «в длинную». Саудовская Аравия является ключевым членом ОПЕК, чья добыча составляет более трети в совокупной добыче стран-членов этой организации. Именно Саудовская Аравия сознательно обвалила цены на нефть в 1985/1986 году, когда за 8 месяцев баррель нефти сорта Брент упал в цене почти втрое.
Вывод № 4: раз сделала один раз, значит можт сделать и в другой.
А теперь рассмотрим причины, подталкивающие крупнейшего в мире производителя нефти к действиям по снижению цены на свой продукт. Их несколько. Снижением цен на нефть Саудовская Аравия добивается следующего:
- падение остановило бы инвестиции в добычу нефти в регионах с высокой себестоимостью добычи и на долгий срок вывело бы за скобки этих конкурентов (Канада, Бразилия, где предел рентабельности добычи – 70 долларов за баррель), но главное даже не это – оно бы остановило инвестиции в новые технологии, которые позволят в будущем снизить себестоимость добычи «дорогой нефти»,- падение цен наносит сильнейший удар по главному геополитическому противнику Саудовской Аравии в мусульманском мире – Ирану, чей бюджет бездефицитен при уровне цен в 90 долларов за баррель,
- падение цен должно остановить переход на гибридный двигатель и малолитражки производителей США, на который они уже получили от правительства гарантии по своим облигациям на 25 млрд. долларов,
- падение цен должно подтолкнуть жестко контролируемую правительством Китая автомобилизацию населения этой огромной страны,
- падение цен должно замедлить переход Японии на электромобили (где утверждена правительственная программа развития инфраструктуры для электромобилей, начинающая действовать с 2010 года).
70% потребляемой США нефти идут на переработку в потреьляемый 200 с лишним миллионами автомобилей бензин. Переход США с огромных джипов на гибриды и малолитражки способен в буквальном смысле убить спрос на нефть, навсегда обесценив 264 млрд. баррелей запасов Саудовской Аравии.
Вывод № 5: чтоб не допустить перехода США на малолитражки, подтолкнуть Китай к массированной автомобилизации, остановить инвестиции в «дорогую нефть» и технологии удешевления ее добычи необходимо обрушить цены на нефть до возможного минимума и продержать их низкими в течении достаточно долгого переода длиной в 7-10 лет. И в этом желания крупнейшего покупателя нефти и крупнейшего ее продавца снова совпадают. А что способнопротивостоять этому дуэту?
Минимум падения будет обыкновенный: 8-10 долларов за баррель российского Юралса. Не верите? Он уже дважды был таким – в 1986 и 1998 гг. И это несмотря на накопленную за 12 лет инфляцию доллара. Т.е. каждый раз в период не коррекции, но обвального падения нефть падает на один и тот же уровень.
Российское правительство ожидает что подобно 1998-1999гг. падение цен не затянется и на этом строит свою тактику противодействия кризису, которую вкратце можно свести к «затыканию дыр». А потому рассмотрим что отличает падение цен 2008 и 1998 гг.?
Основных отличий три:
- в 1998 г. экономики стран Запада росли, а сейчас находятся в глубочайшем кризисе, дно которого будут проходить после президентских выборов в США, которые состоятся 4 ноября и после которых новый президент США чтоб не нести ответственность за результаты провальной политики предшественника немедленно заявит, что США находятся в состоянии рецессии, что обрушит цены на нефть,
- сейчас заканчивается длительный, четвертьвековой цикл экономического роста в США, который сменится неглубоким провалом и длительным периодом знакомой по 1970-м годам стагфляции (с учетом влитой в последнее время центробанками ЕС, США и Японии ликвидности именно стагфляции – гибрида стагнации и высокой инфляции),
- падение цен 1998 года заканчивало 12-летний цикл низких цен на нефть, падение цен 2008 года завершает 9-летний цикл высоких цен на нефть и все это накладывается на окончание 25-летнего цикла роста в США, для которого финансовый кризис является лишь одним из проявлений.
Иные надеются что цены на нефть вытянет рост в Китае и Индии. Так вот – рост в этих странах в огромной степени является ростом замещения, когда завод в Китае открывается вместо закрытого завода в США и на балансе потребления ресурсов открытие завода в Китае почти не отражается. Единственное что способно вытянуть нефть – это резкий рост внутреннего производства в Китае и автомобилизация этой страны. Но Китай изрядно поиздержался на подготовку Олимпиады в Пекине, так что в ближайшие год-два существенного роста ориентированного на внутреннее потребления сектора в нем ждать не приходится. А автомобилизация – в руках китайского руководства и Саудовской Аравии.
И никакой Стабфонд, тем более изрядно подрастраченный в ходе борьбы правительства России с кризисными явлениями осенью этого года, не способен в течение указанных выше 7-10 лет обеспечивать существование России на должном уровне. Просто потому что в России, в отличие от 4-миллионной Норвегии, живет 140 миллионов жителей.
Выводом должно стать следующее:
- путинское правительство поступило безусловно на порядок умнее своих советских предшественников, тупо проевших огромные поступления от экспорта подорожавшей в разы нефти (период 1973-1985гг.), накопив огромный финансовый резерв
- но поскольку в России живет 140 миллионов жителей, а за долгими периодами высоких цен на нефть следуют долгие периоды низких цен на нефть никакой финансовый резерв Россию не спасет
- и потому в следующий раз, когда нас постигнет новый виток роста цен на нефть, надо не проедать поступления и даже не создавать огромные финансовые резервы, а повышая налогообложение нефтяной и газовой отраслей, снижать налогообложение несырьевого сектора российской экономики, имея в виду что только снятие экономики России с «нефтяной иглы» навсегда застрахует нас от повторения кризисов 1986,1998,2008 годов.
ЮПД. Почти 3 года назад, в феврале 2006 я написал большой и очень подробный доклад по тому, что и как будет с Россией - бюджетом, экономикой и пр. в случае падения цен до 8-10 долларов. Если кому интересно - могу кусками начать публиковать. Есть желающие?
ЮПД2. Себестоимость добычи нефти в 2001 г. Источник - “Коммерсант-деньги” за 2002 год.
Саудовская Аравия - 3 долл., Россия - 7,05 долл., Норвегия - 10 долл., Венесуэла - 10 долл., Иран - 4 долл., ОАЭ - 3 долл., Ирак - 3 долл., Кувейт - 3 долл., Нигерия - 5 долл., Мексика - 10 долл.
Оригинал статьи на rusanalit.livejournal.com
Метки: кризис
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12 Январь 2012 в 19:39
needs of promotional codes, coupon code and…
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12 Январь 2012 в 23:07
gp modification tools, as extender, microsoft dexterity…
and econnect. we are trying to keep balance between being too technical and not being too “executive level faq”. dynamics gp is corporate erp, designed for mid-market, and this should mean for you that gp programming might not be apparent and…
13 Январь 2012 в 3:20
essential to healthy aging. it has proven…
to be a valuable adjutant therapy in the treatment of parkinson’s disease, and clinical studies support its use in the treatment of cardiovascular disease. clinical trials showed that coq10 supplements can have a significant positive effect on the eff…
13 Январь 2012 в 5:38
problems, it is again best to look…
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13 Январь 2012 в 8:22
how do you go about finding the…
right criminal attorney? well you should do the following in order to help you find the right attorney.first off never settle on the very first lawyer that you talk too, no matter how good they sound. you need to have looked…
14 Январь 2012 в 0:29
will produce the most damage. instead, brake…
as much as it is safely possible up to just before impact and release the brakes in time to roll across the pothole. this will result in a rolling contact which produces less damage in most cases.when deciding on proper inflation…
14 Январь 2012 в 21:00
and time you still will not be…
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17 Январь 2012 в 18:42
and lcd tv’s in india has gained…
much popularity and the reason that lies behind is perfect picture quality, increase in income, standard of living and a thirst to have all modernized product in one’s home.this festive season kick off the serpentine queue and buy your dreams from…
17 Январь 2012 в 20:15
laminate floors is a mixture of warm…
water, one or two drops of liquid dish detergent and half a cupful of vinegar. utilizing this mixture will ensure that the shine on your laminate floors remains for a long time to arrive.nowadays manufacturers of some of the best laminate…
18 Январь 2012 в 22:16
payments and similar transactions. the merchant accounts…
usually keep the payments made for around 24 hours and then transfer the money automatically and credit it to the business firm’s bank account. with the modern trends and ecommerce proliferating in the business world today, it is imperative to have…
19 Январь 2012 в 17:39
a price that tropical island on time…
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22 Январь 2012 в 17:35
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24 Январь 2012 в 2:06
would be to allow you to shoot…
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25 Январь 2012 в 16:06
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25 Январь 2012 в 22:57
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26 Январь 2012 в 0:15
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26 Январь 2012 в 1:21
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26 Январь 2012 в 1:51
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26 Январь 2012 в 2:19
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26 Январь 2012 в 2:27
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26 Январь 2012 в 4:14
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26 Январь 2012 в 8:34
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26 Январь 2012 в 18:33
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27 Январь 2012 в 2:02
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27 Январь 2012 в 4:23
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27 Январь 2012 в 5:24
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27 Январь 2012 в 7:01
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27 Январь 2012 в 7:03
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27 Январь 2012 в 11:20
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27 Январь 2012 в 22:05
of the hippocratic oath usually taken when…
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28 Январь 2012 в 0:05
discovered that electronic cigarettes are very much…
a quickly growing concern. a google search revealed there is no smoke without fire as almost six million results just for the phrase “electronic cigarette” were returned.what is an electronic cigarette?the electronic cigarette has been in existence f…
28 Январь 2012 в 1:05
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28 Январь 2012 в 1:44
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28 Январь 2012 в 5:25
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28 Январь 2012 в 7:01
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28 Январь 2012 в 20:50
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28 Январь 2012 в 21:29
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28 Январь 2012 в 22:54
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29 Январь 2012 в 3:34
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29 Январь 2012 в 5:46
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29 Январь 2012 в 6:04
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29 Январь 2012 в 16:36
keys, cd players and keyless entry. it…
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29 Январь 2012 в 22:26
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30 Январь 2012 в 0:12
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30 Январь 2012 в 1:11
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30 Январь 2012 в 1:44
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30 Январь 2012 в 1:49
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30 Январь 2012 в 3:08
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30 Январь 2012 в 3:11
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30 Январь 2012 в 4:21
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30 Январь 2012 в 4:51
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30 Январь 2012 в 6:07
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30 Январь 2012 в 6:13
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30 Январь 2012 в 14:40
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30 Январь 2012 в 15:11
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30 Январь 2012 в 15:13
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30 Январь 2012 в 16:28
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30 Январь 2012 в 17:04
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30 Январь 2012 в 19:30
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30 Январь 2012 в 19:37
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30 Январь 2012 в 20:57
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30 Январь 2012 в 21:33
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31 Январь 2012 в 5:03
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31 Январь 2012 в 14:39
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31 Январь 2012 в 14:52
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31 Январь 2012 в 17:15
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31 Январь 2012 в 17:33
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31 Январь 2012 в 18:41
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31 Январь 2012 в 19:08
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31 Январь 2012 в 20:26
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31 Январь 2012 в 21:46
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1 Февраль 2012 в 2:48
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1 Февраль 2012 в 3:33
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1 Февраль 2012 в 3:35
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1 Февраль 2012 в 3:50
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1 Февраль 2012 в 14:35
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1 Февраль 2012 в 15:13
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1 Февраль 2012 в 20:15
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2 Февраль 2012 в 2:40
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2 Февраль 2012 в 14:36
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2 Февраль 2012 в 15:46
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2 Февраль 2012 в 16:23
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2 Февраль 2012 в 17:21
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2 Февраль 2012 в 18:01
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3 Февраль 2012 в 15:49
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3 Февраль 2012 в 16:27
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3 Февраль 2012 в 20:01
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3 Февраль 2012 в 20:44
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3 Февраль 2012 в 21:12
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3 Февраль 2012 в 21:46
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4 Февраль 2012 в 0:40
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4 Февраль 2012 в 2:39
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4 Февраль 2012 в 3:47
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4 Февраль 2012 в 4:15
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5 Февраль 2012 в 9:47
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5 Февраль 2012 в 11:13
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5 Февраль 2012 в 11:34
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5 Февраль 2012 в 11:35
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5 Февраль 2012 в 20:20
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5 Февраль 2012 в 21:45
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